velocivector | cfuw 133 rika

I would have to say Ankh, but it's just a guess. He's generally a low-key enough player that he's impossible to peg as either a sheep or a wolf, so there's nothing really to say that he's either. I don't particularly think you, Hazama, or Parker are wolves, but it's at the stage where I could easily be wrong.

What do you think?

I feel it's between Ankh and Parker. Hazama is a wildcard and it's possible his being a wolf is why he hasn't been eaten yet, but it seems like there's more he could fuck around with if he were one. I agree with what you said about Ankh, and I'll add that the one time I did see him as a wolf, his activity had been a little low even for him. Parker I have no clue, but I'm more confident about Hazama than her.

Parker's attempts to move the game along ring me as true, but that's so weak that I'd consider it not much more than no evidence at all. I do think Hazama is more likely a sheep than not, for the reasons you state. The wolves would have to be idiots to eat a sheep who's causing that much disruption and distraction, and none of the possible wolves strike me as that dumb.

It's funny, I remember suggesting that to Klavier and he swore that Kokonoe would have taken him out right away anyway. I'm chalking that up to Klavier not knowing much about the game.

What do you think of Ankh's votes? The ones I'm mulling over the most are his vote the first day on Lambdadelta and his vote on Mayumi last night. The others don't have much in the way of suggesting anything about him, but I think these ones might when we have more information.

I haven't really gathered voting statistics yet, to be honest. I could see them as being sheep or wolf votes, honestly. Lambda was so low on votes that it seems just as natural to me to have a wolf vote on her to keep suspicion off her.

I have them here and plan to keep editing that comment to add more as long as I'm still here. Anyway, I was thinking the same thing, that it could go either way. As for last night, I think whether it's Parker or Ankh, they deliberately chose to vote on Mayumi just because Kokonoe would do better against you if/when that clue gets revisited. Lambdadelta is gonna have a tough time against Kiyama as it is.

Thank you for that.

That's what I'm thinking. I think if Kokonoe had gone up against Mayumi, even in this round, she would have been out. Mayumi just would not make a terribly plausible wolf suspect.

I am curious as to why Lambda seems to be backing off the second clue, for that reason. Now seems the perfect time to back me up to prepare her for the next clue, unless she's trying to subtly sabotage me so that I'll lose my round. I'll let you know what she says in private.

Mayumi was only plausible as one due to the possibility of using her behavior as a cover.

I'll be waiting on that, then. Are you talking to anyone else in private, or just me and her?

Just her and you.

She's not really giving me anything substantial, unfortunately. Just generic since she "knows" that Kiyama's a wolf, me voting on him that early was strange if we were both wolves and her behavior is aggressive and not very well grounded in logic. Neither of which are calculated to help in my defense.

. . . She thinks you voting on him that early is strange if you were both wolves? She needs her head screwed on tight better. I could see you taking that risk in that kind of hypothetical scenario, because sometimes, voting on wolves early on can act as a good mask. But what I find more important is the fact that you were gone during most of the suspicion voting, right? So your vote was laid down without any influence from Kiyama's dramatics, which are probably what made so many people vote on Desmond and then him.

Yeah, my conversation with her is actually making me more suspicious of her. If she's playing multiple levels - as a wolf who thinks that endorsing a sheep as a sheep but not too well might save her bacon in the next round, it makes more sense than her making that poor an assumption.

I wasn't there, but I was following a little - do you know why were there so many votes on Desmond at one point and then I think they shifted to Kiyama? Just as the first person to vote for in an attempt to show Hatter that they were voting?

Kiyama's dramatics were influential, I'd say. It's what caused me to vote on Desmond; I didn't want to vote on Lambdadelta without good reason, if only because she'd be more of a help than an unknown like Desmond, and she would keep an eye on you if she were a wolf. I was the fifth to vote; the third on Desmond, while two were on Kiyama. The votes continued to slam onto Desmond, then piled on Kiyama and one vote on Lambdadelta, and finally more the last few votes. I didn't catch the exact order, but I'm pretty sure Ankh's vote on her was close to last of all the votes.

Most likely, the votes focused on him first because Desmond wasn't around and therefore made an easier target than Lambdadelta. Between him being absent and Kiyama's questionable antics, she managed to slip under the radar for acting completely normal and seemingly levelheaded in comparison.

By the way, Kiyama opened a post to me. I'll let you know if he has anything to offer. As a newer player he'll probably suck at working up a defense.

[sighs] Given the choice between someone who isn't there, and someone publicly making dramatics, I guess it is pretty self-explanatory why people would vote that way. Even if they made him look innocent, he'd still be predominantly on people's minds when they vote.

Good. I think it'll be interesting to see what he says, even if I don't have high hopes for it.

He asked me which clue I wanted to go for, and said he wanted to focus on his. I've told him I'd rather focus on yours, for X and Y reasons, and that while I believe he's probably the sheep, he'll need to work on building a solid defense against Lambdadelta while picking her defenses apart. I've also told him about Klavier warning me about Kokonoe, but not that I'm talking to you.

I'm starting to significantly doubt that Lambda's the wolf.

Why is that?

A lot of factors. The most obvious reason is that Kiyama started acting in the last round, and I started to be able see how he acts. He's [considering her words] very new to the game, obviously. But he attempted to split the vote, and argued with me about it; he did that annoying you're too active a sheep thing, you must be a wolf; he went and picked a fight with someone who is a threat to a wolf and wolves tend to know each other better; he followed other people's lead. Everything could be indicative of a clumsy, thoughtless, stupid player. Or it could be a wolf.

The second is that I went back and looked at the thread where he tried to leave the game, and read it carefully. As much sympathy as he got for being forced into play in a hostage situation - it's the wolves who generally rebel, because the wolves have to get their hands bloodier. He seemed to be dancing right along the edge of admitting he was a wolf straight out, and I don't know if it's because he was a sheep and did it to shut people up, or because he was a wolf and wasn't sure of the consequences.

The third is that I've been talking to Lambda, and she's...mm. We play a lot of games together, you know. It causes us problems in these, because we tend to forget that the rest of the players exist and that we're not on opposite sides, but I've seen her lie for games before. It's possible that she's lying, because Lambda is very, very good at games when it comes down to it, but in this case I don't think she is. Her votes haven't acted to benefit the wolves any more than an average sheep, she hasn't been pushing interpretations. Mi- In general I just can't say her play's benefited the wolves.

Fourth, is that Kiyama's defense can be summarized by saying that he hasn't yet figured out that saying he has to play hard to protect his friend isn't the same as saying he's a sheep. At this point in the game, I find this suspicious.

But in the end, Kiyama's just striking me as too stupid to be real. His defense is stupid. His attacks are stupid. His attempts to resign are stupid. And when someone's reaching that level of stupid, I'm going to seriously consider whether they're a wolf playing stupid.

Edited 2011-11-07 21:44 (UTC)

Huh . . . There are a few things I need to input about that. The first is that he's been talking to Ankh in private. I believe those two were discussing the clues, and it would explain why they both wanted to tackle the first clue. Ankh is my primary suspect for the third clue. If they were both wolves it would be to Ankh's advantage to keep Kiyama looking . . . smarter than we've seen of him. If Ankh and Lambdadelta are the wolves, though, I can see him encouraging Kiyama's stupidity. If Kiyama is the wolf, then two wolves slammed on Desmond the first night in ousting. If Lambdadelta is the wolf, then three wolves slammed on Desmond. Hazama and I both voted early on, at a point where there could still be a turnaround, and Ankh voted toward the end, after Desmond was doomed. It may not have been a purposeful setup, but the way Desmond was slammed plus the warning we got on the third day, together makes one of the few early things you could use to make Kiyama look like a wolf who got saved in the first round.

I get where you're coming from regarding Kiyama's behavior last night after the clue was revealed and during ousting. I still got some doubts though. I think he'd have to be way too stupid to have done all that given how strong your defense was, and he knew it was strong. I had mentioned it to him in his private post with me, even the stuff about Klavier and Kokonoe. It would probably implicate him too much.

One more thing: Lambdadelta's and Ankh's votes on Mayumi the second day were the only other votes on her besides Parker, a sheep. I know that I wavered between Mayumi and Kokonoe for a while based on what Klavier told me in my post with him . . . but I found Kokonoe to be a much more plausible wolf and would have voted on her no matter what. So, why tie up the votes to give the chance of putting Mayumi up there? (The last vote on each person were Kokonoe, Mayumi and Lambdadelta; depending on vote order Kokonoe or Lambdadelta's votes could have been what clinched it.) Probably because that was the only chance they had of getting rid of her in an ousting.

Do you want to see anything from the post Kiyama has with me?

Edited 2011-11-07 22:08 (UTC)

Mi- Ankh being a wolf encouraging his stupidity has the potential to be an answer for it, and I hadn't thought of that. Considering how stupid he is, though... mi- [this mi does not express confidence]

Lambda says that she voted to put Kokonoe and Mayumi up to vote, and moving it would have guaranteed I went up. Considering I'm fairly sure I remember seeing my vote dip below those too, before Kokonoe voted and evened it up, I can believe that. But my memory's fuzzy by now.

Has he said anything that is in some way remarkable?

If that's what Lambda said, I'm also willing to believe that she's being perfectly truthful in that context. It does match up. I still don't like the fact that Mayumi got piled on, but she has an excuse there.

Well, there's this:

velocivector
2011-11-06 03:13 pm (local)
I don't think you're a wolf.

I think Rika has a solid defense, and most of Kokonoe's so-called defenses are flimsy at best and easily countered. Kokonoe's attempts at nitpicking Rika's defenses suck, quite frankly. On top of that, I was talking to Klavier last night since the clue came out. He told me to suspect Kokonoe if he got eaten. He had been talking to her privately; it was their exchange that made him feel he would get taken out quickly for knowing too much and being a prosecutor.

-

downbeating
2011-11-06 03:14 pm (local)
Good.

Yeah, I heard their conversation with each other. Kokonoe doesn't really have anything to back her up. I can see how that works out.

I'm pasting this because I'm not sure why he went from that, to his idiocy with you in both posts. I'm going to ask him about that. After the above, he asked me about Klavier and Kokonoe, which I told you before:

velocivector
2011-11-06 03:53 pm (local)
I didn't ask for too many details. All I know is that they discussed possible eating choices, and he probably drilled her for info on Hazama.

I believe you, but I think you need to pad your defense with something stronger, that's harder to counter. The scene you caused the first day with Hatter and Hino was extremely attention-getting. It would be very risky for a wolf to try that, and I don't think you have the personality for deliberately doing that on purpose just to make yourself look more sheeplike. The wolves have a special post to plot in; I think if you were a wolf, you'd have already had reality knocked into you long beforehand. As a sheep, you probably thought that you could ignore things until people started dying or you ended up in a clue. That's when you snapped.

There doesn't seem to be much that your voting so far can say in terms of adding to your defense, but perhaps your refusal to vote on Mayumi who is now seen as someone who wouldn't have made a very plausible wolf anyway is worth mentioning.

That's all I can think of in terms of specifically defending yourself. You make an effort to be a good, thoughtful sheep. The biggest problem is that as suspicious as Lambdadelta is looking now, she's very smart. The best way to take her down is picking apart her defenses until they collapse from their own weakness.

-

downbeating
2011-11-06 03:56 pm (local)
Right, that makes more sense than what I was going for. And I voted for her because she didn't seem like a wolf. Her actions were based on her emotions and it showed. She didn't have it in her to accuse anyone either.

Yeah, I pretty much knew that about her already. She's smart. Smarter than me, probably.

-

velocivector
2011-11-06 04:02 pm (local)
Just make sure you don't come off like you're attacking her. Keep it to things like questioning suspicious things she's said, and wait till you're asked about your opinion of her to bring up the topic. Kokonoe is a prime example of doing it wrong.

And just earlier I told him it looks like people seriously suspect him. He said it was his own fault.

velocivector
2011-11-07 05:20 pm (local)
Do you mind if I ask your thoughts on Ankh and myself?

-

downbeating
2011-11-07 05:21 pm (local)
I think Ankh is a wolf. He's dead set on making you out to be suspicious to me. Says you're experienced and smart, like that's enough to make you a wolf. Something about Rika, too. But as far as I know, you've only been helpful to the cause.

Does this match up with what he's been telling you? I saw you're talking to him.

Since then, I've asked him about you. He said picking the fight with you had everything to do with disliking the way you seemed to be controlling things, like a game guy he knows. You'll also remember that during the drinking game he took a drink for starting fights without reason. The guy's a delinquent and a lot of times he doesn't think things through. This would explain why he acted so stupid last night.

Also, he only trusts you and me.

Edited 2011-11-08 00:32 (UTC)

[giggles a little ruefully] I guess I should have figured.

Mmm. Mostly? He seems smarter when talking to you.

So what do you wanna do with this ousting? Ankh will probably vote on Kiyama, we can't count on Hazama to vote, and I know you want to be thorough before you risk voting out your friend.

I think Kiyama's a lot more suspicious, honestly. [shrugs] It's possible that I'm wrong, but... I don't think Lambda would choose to lie to me that well in a kill game where she wants to kill the person running it, and even if the explanation for his stupidity is stupidity, it's still suspicious.

Well, I'm probably gonna vote on Lambdadelta because I've known a lot of really stupid delinquents with attitude problems, most of them being idiots who thought it wise to try picking a fight with me. But I think both of them should be questioned in public thoroughly. Does that sound fair?

Of course, nipa~

Thanks.

Mi- Is there any information I can give you that will lean you towards Lambda?

Sorry, I didn't see this till now. There isn't. I'm gonna leave it up to chance with the tie. This is the fairest way.

And I'm sorry if I turn out to be wrong, if your friend has to die, or anything else I end up having to be sorry for.

[see icon]

. . . I'll accept full responsibility no matter what.

cfuw 133 rika

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